Stock Market Performance: Obama vs. Trump

Trump's incessant, one-note tweets can be loathsome and tiring, but his constant reminders about the stock market hitting new highs are especially irksome. As with nearly everything Trump utters, let's try to apply a little perspective and, gulp, facts to gain a more realistic understanding.



The chart above shows that the S&P 500 bottomed at 676.53 on 3/9/2009, not long after Obama was inaugurated in 2009. Using the same time frame, the S&P 500 closed at 2364.87 on 3/9/2017 for Trump.

The total return for the S&P 500 from the 3/9/2009 low to 3/9/2017 was 311%. Since 3/9/2017, the S&P 500 has risen by 15% (through yesterday).

Trump has a LONG ways to go to match Obama's stock market performance, and yet Obama rarely said a word about the market hitting new highs during his eight years. Meanwhile, Trump blares from the rooftop....

P.S. And modify the date ranges if you must, e.g. use inauguration day to inauguration day. The message remains: Obama will look exceptionally good and Trump has quite a ways to go to take such a victory lap.

Coming to a theater near you....

A buddy film for the ages....

The Flynn plea deal is just one more step towards the truth

As I often do, I watched Fox News coverage of the Michael Flynn plea deal (always must check in to see what propaganda is being fed to "the base"). And as is often the case, it's as if I'm watching a channel from another planet. A little bit of Flynn news, followed by the tax bill, Steinle verdict, Conyers, Franken, the failure of liberalism, etc. It's no wonder Obama recently said, "Those who watch Fox News and those who read the New York Times occupy completely different realities. If I watch Fox News, I wouldn’t vote for me."

Something I continue to hear on Fox is the refrain, "this latest bit of news is primarily bad for X, but still doesn't show or prove anything towards collusion with Russia." And "X" in this case is Flynn, but not long ago it was Manafort and Papadopoulos.

Rather than look at the bigger picture and how this Flynn plea fits into a progression of events leading to what will likely be a momentous conclusion, Fox News (and those on the right) prefers to compartmentalize each new revelation, judging it in isolation and framing it as "no big deal." Flynn's plea deal simply means Flynn lied and now he alone is paying the price for that misdeed, period. It says nothing about any wrongdoing by Trump, namely collusion with the Russians.

This is like watching the Super Bowl last year and at half-time stating the Patriots suck and the Falcons rule. Not so fast....

Mueller is currently fighting (and winning) battles to eventually win the war. The Flynn deal is just another step taken towards resolving the investigation. Mueller is leveraging players by obtaining their cooperation through plea deals as a means to discovery of what truly occurred, whether it be colluding with the Russians OR obstructing justice, or both. This is Law School 101 stuff.

And mind you, the fact that Flynn's deal is so lenient (plead guilty on just one count?!) given the laundry list of violations and possible criminal acts against him, it says Flynn had much to offer Mueller, which should make Trump et al VERY worried. Notice also no word of Flynn's son, who likely was saved as part of the deal -- again, emphasizing that Flynn presumably has ample significant information to hand over to Mueller. 

As they say, this is a marathon, not a race. It's why Trump has repeatedly wanted to shut down the investigation. The longer it drags on, the closer Mueller gets to the actual truth. And if Trump was not afraid about the actual truth coming out, then he would have no problem with Mueller's investigation. But he does have a problem with it, biggly.