Tuesday, October 09, 2012

Romney's Rise in Polls vs. Electoral College Map

So I guess it pays to lie after all. In the debate, Romney spewed forth one whopper after another and ended up winning the thing going away.

When Bill Clinton was busted for his Monica indiscretion, Republicans at the time couldn't stop repeating, "What will the children think?" Oh, how awful for our kids to observe this behavior in a president. But apparently Republicans have no problem with the example set by a presidential candidate telling a lie every 90 seconds. No, that's a fine virtue, something I suppose Jesus did in a version of the Bible I have yet to read.

As a result of Romney's near-psychopathic performance, more than a few polls have risen in his favor, with some even showing him taking the lead over Obama. What confuses me is when it comes to web sites which track what the Electoral College map looks like, they continue to show Obama with a comfortable lead. For example, Electoral-vote.com currently shows Obama leading Romney by a fairly huge 332-206 margin, and Nate Silver has Obama up by 297-241.

I like to think the more valid and accurate reflection of what will happen come Election Day are these depictions of electoral vote totals, as opposed to more generic national polls. Most of the web sites that tally the electoral votes tend to have a more comprehensive methodology, one that typically starts at the state level, calculating a consensus poll per state based on many polls taken within each state. State results are then aggregated up to the national level to finally derive electoral vote totals.

Assuming as I am that the electoral vote web sites are more reflective of the election's eventual outcome, why is it that the national polls get much more attention by the media? Is it simply because it's easier for the public to understand 49% vs. 47%, as opposed to 300-238?


Jeremy Parker said...

I have never used the term "horse-race" more than in the last couple of months. This race being close pays big money for the media; in political ads and in clicks.

Anonymous said...

I have never used the term "lying sack" more in my life than the last few months of Vulture and Voucher in the news.

Mitch Carpenter said...

It pays to lie if you're allowed to get away with it. The President didn't even try to dispute the crap that Romney was flinging, until the next day... when he had about 3% of the audience.

The Vice President showed him how to do it. He's got to fight and claw his way back out front again, instead of rolling over. The President is an honorable and decent man, but this is when he has to get his hands dirty.

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