This morning on Air America Radio, they were discussing presidential election strategy with Congressman Charles Rangel. The congressman from NY reminded listeners that this election will likely come down to just two or three states. Quite a sobering reminder.

The Washington Post poll out this morning would seem to confirm this statement. Despite Bush receiving more negative verdicts than positive on a host of issues, the bottom line is Bush comes out ahead of Kerry, 47% vs. 42%. How could this be, especially since 57% believe this country is on the "wrong track" (vs. 42% "right track")? The answer can be found in the fact that of those supporting each candidate strongly, Bush gets 84% vs. Kerry's 65%. The fact is Bush has a greater number of supporters who are strictly locked in to their candidate. They are going to vote Bush come hell or high water as he can do no wrong in their eyes. Obviously, Kerry has a lower count of such devout voters. A large segment of Bush voters are diehard fans who don't care a hoot about any recent revelations concerning Richard Clarke, Bob Woodward, 9-11 testimony, etc. Their hands cover their ears as they hum loudly, not wanting to hear the truth.

That said, Bush does not have to spend one dollar of his enormous war chest on many states, populated by such blind followers. He can focus his mighty arsenal on just a few swing states, bombarding them with enough spaghetti-against-the-wall propaganda until something sticks ala Willie Horton style. All of this sadly presents a grim picture for Kerry. I come across diehard Bush types all the time and it's clear to me that to change the mind of such folks would require an act of heinous stupidity far surpassing that of say Watergate. We're talking enormous denial.

I don't mean to paint an utterly hopeless situation, but before one can achieve victory one needs to understand and recognize hurdles to be overcome.