Granted, it's early, but here's one potential road map to a Kerry victory:

The Cook Political Report lists their "Electoral College Outlook," as of mid-April. Note that it has Kerry ahead by a 228-211 count with 99 votes up for grabs, despite the fact that Kerry's polling numbers have gone up since mid-April. Just focusing on these month-old numbers, of the nine states categorized as toss-ups, if we assume that four of those states that went Democrat in 2000 go Democrat again, then Kerry picks up another 32 votes, bringing his total to 260 -- just 10 short of victory. The remaining five toss-up states (FLA, MO, NH, OH, NV) went Republican in 2000. There is another state that is leaning Republican (Arizona). If Kerry chooses Bill Richardson (Gov. of New Mexico) as VP, a credible case can be made that Kerry could then pick-up Nevada and Arizona, totalling 15 votes. Bingo, he'd then have 275 votes, a win, without the supposed necessary states of Florida and/or Ohio. And again, this projection was when Bush led Kerry in the polls 50-46; it's now reversed.