Like pea soup slowly coming to a boil, I'm beginning to notice an increasing number of items mentioning the possibility of Bush dumping Cheney for Giuliani. The latest is in today's NY Daily News.

Amidst all of the obligatory denials concerning this potential damage-control move, it would make some sense. Cheney's health remains a big "?" and he is at the forefront of many outrageous acts including duck hunting with Scalia, Halliburton conflicts galore, and his continued secrecy regarding energy policy meetings. In addition, it's an accepted fact among most people that Cheney is very much running the country -- not Bush. Saturday Night Live has performed more than one skit depicting this notion and Bush requesting that he appear before the 9-11 commission holding hands with Cheney further confirmed this fact. It seems clear that Cheney is a net negative on the ticket.

However, would Rudy be a major improvement? While he would likely be a major step-up in terms of vote gathering (which is all Rove is focused on at this point -- can you blame him?), what would be his role in (gulp!) a Bush second term? My guess: he would quickly be marginalized. "Huh?" you say, the great Rudy put aside? I say this because compared to Cheney, Giuliani looks like a reasonable liberal. Unless Rudy undergoes an overnight transformation, becoming a strident, partisan, hardcore right-wing fanatic, than I simply don't see him wielding any kind of influence in a lame duck Bush term -- one that will most likely be a last-hurrah, free-for-all giveaway to special interests and the like. Assuming Rudy has an ounce of dignity / principles left (as did Christine Whitman), he will learn big lessons by what happened to someone like Colin Powell, a person who once had huge influence thanks to his bipartisan admiration and seemingly bedrock beliefs and willingness to speak out on such beliefs, only to now be looked upon as a huge disappointment, a failure of character. One thing is clear: Rudy has a huge ego. Would he be willing to play second fiddle? To a clown, no less?

The News article mentions that Cheney had many things wrong about Iraq and dumping Dick would show voters that Bush holds people accountable. But in this regard it stands to reason that before Cheney gets the boot, Bush would have to fire Rumsfeld first, otherwise it simply looks idiotic. So Bush would fire both? Yeah, right.

All of this said, as Bush's poll numbers plummet to 40%, look for the increasing likelihood of something drastic happening.