An excellent point made by Lt. Gen.William Odom (retired):

[T]he implications for political consolidation in Iraq, the very thing that General David Petraeus and others say is essential for success, are adverse. Those Sunnis who are accepting the offer to fight al Qaeda in return for weapons and ammunition do so because they mistrust the present government in Baghdad. Most say so openly. In other words, they will fight on the U.S. side precisely because they do not trust their own government. That tells us that we are arming the enemies of the government whose election and legitimacy we sponsored. Perhaps the president can explain why he favors such a strange policy.

The political situation in Iraq is indeed transforming like the dynamics that occurred in the novel "Lord of the Flies," with sides adapting in order to survive and best obtain power given the woeful lot dealt them. It's one thing for this to happen in a fictional account of boys stranded on an island, it's quite another for it to occur in a real-life, war-torn country with 25+ million people.

How exactly does this leave hope for the future? What would Vegas place the odds at a favorable outcome? Remember all of the above when the Republicans eventually get around to blaming Democrats for the inevitable further trying times that await Iraq.