So Bush is down to just a 33% approval rating -- and this from a Fox News poll!

Unfortunately, odds are that's about as low as it's going to go. At a time when that number should be single digits, the fact that it's not goes a long way towards displaying that bedrock core of know-nothings who will support this president no matter how bad things get. With religion, and namely abortion, as the driving issue for most of them, Bush could run through the streets naked on TV and he'd still get the votes of this 30%.

It's an enormous advantage to have this 30% anchored, in-stone block of voters. If it were a Dem president currently in GW's shoes, you can be assured this 30% zombie-block would be unanimously against him/her and then perhaps another 30+% reasonable people who rightfully would want change = 60+%.

And there's the problem: it's not a 100% electorate up for grabs, but rather given 30% on auto-pilot for the GOP, it leaves just 70% up for grabs. Now do the math: the Dems need to win 73% of that 70% (.73 x .70 = 51%), whereas the GOP only needs to win 30% of that up-for-grabs 70% (.30 + (.3 x .7) = 51%).

Appreciating the math is crucial. And we haven't even factored in the paper-trail-less, blackbox voting machine shenanigans!