Wednesday, February 13, 2008

I have a question: with all of these polls that show McCain near dead-even when up against Clinton or Obama in November, just who exactly are the polls sampling? Are they asking a 50/50 representation of Republican and Democratic voters, to insure a fair distribution? If so, then these polls are likely to be highly deceptive.

If there's one thing for certain we've seen this primary season it's the Dem voters are showing up in droves, far outnumbering Republican voters. On Super Tuesday, I believe the number was about 15 million Dem voters to 9 million GOP voters -- quite a large difference. So if we assume this variance in turnout carries through into November, then it will most certainly prove these McCain vs. Hillary/Obama polls wrong, again assuming the polls are making an effort to ask equal numbers of both Republicans and Democrats.

For this reason it likely explains why INTRADE has the odds at 66% that the eventual Democrat will beat the eventual Republican in November. It's all about voter turnout.

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