Friday, October 01, 2004

I just completed what could be a revealing exercise. I wanted to see what the “smart states” thought about this election. Smart states? I define them as those states which have gone a perfect 4-0 in picking the last four presidents. Please note that I regard Gore as the winner in 2000 for what should be obvious reasons, but if you prefer, rephrase it those states selecting the candidate who eventually received the most votes.

Of the fifty states, just 11 have gone 4-0: CA, NM, IL, MI, PA, VT, CT, NJ, DE, MD, and ME. Using data from, I tabulated the most recent polls for these states and derived an average. The result? Kerry has a sizeable lead, 49% vs. 41%. When you weight the numbers according to electoral votes, it gets slightly better (50% vs. 41%).

I realize not too much should be made of this calculation, nonetheless it does say something that these 11 states have had the ability to select the eventual winner over the last four contests.

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