Monday, June 19, 2006

  • If Chavez decides to block our access to Venezuelan oil, it could cause the price of crude to rise by $11. And despite prices at the pump steadily rising all year, demand for oil has remained robust, offering proof that $3 a gallon is still not high enough to change our habits. Several economists believe the magic number is closer to $4 per gallon. (Note that during both 1973 and 1980 -- the last two times this country experienced gas disruptions -- year-over-year demand plummeted).

  • Given polls can be biased depending on the outlet, a better way to measure reality is to compare the change in a given poll. As an example, after the death of Zarqawi, the CNN poll rose by 1% from its prior poll and the CBS poll dropped by 2% vs. its prior poll. I quickly did this for about 10 polls and came up with Bush picking up 1-2%, that's it. And already this bump-up is subsiding. Back to the drawing board for Rove....

  • Note that Bush's 37% approval rating is still 11% below Clinton's in 1994, leading up to the huge surprise victory by Newt & Co. The rating for Congress is 23% -- or 4% below what it was just before elections in '94. Also, whereas the GOP needed to capture 40 seats in '94 to take the house, this year the Dems need just 15. Is it any wonder corporations are beginning to fund the Democrats?

  • The Washington Post reports that Bush Inc. never had any interest in fining corporations about illegal immigrants -- not at least until Karl Rove chose the topic as the next "gay marriage" election-year issue to wedge the country. In 1999 (Clinton), the government moved to fine 417 companies; in 2004, that number dropped to three! Just like Bush could give a rats arse about abortion, the same holds for immigration. But when Rove needs a fake, hot-button issue to stoke his hot-blooded, zombie sect of voters, he went with this one....

  • Really Mr. President, things are looking up in Iraq?? Oh, and I'll tell you what, you can at least get close to declaring Iraq a success when the day comes that you can travel over to that country without having to resort to top-secret shenanigans to the point where even the Iraqi prime minister is in the dark.
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