As far back as I can get data (1982), the Democrats have never had a lead among independents larger than 4 points in an actual election, a level they managed to achieve in both 1986 and 1990. Indeed, since 1990, they’ve lost independents in every congressional election: by 14 points in 1994; by 4 points in 1998; and by 2 points in 2002. So, even leaving questions of relative partisan turnout aside (and I suspect the Democrats will do better, not worse, in this respect in 2006), the implications of a strong Democratic lead among independents in this year’s election, if it holds, are huge.
Wednesday, October 11, 2006
I recently wrote about some very encouraging trends regarding independents, and two days ago Paul Glastris mentioned similar such observations reported by Ruy Teixiera. Ruy states that Dems have a 14-15 point lead among independent voters and that:
Posted by Grey Matter at 5:50 AM