Thursday, September 09, 2004

Some overdue items from the USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll:

* "Likely Voters" favor Bush by a 52-45 margin, however "Registered Voters" favor Bush by just a 49-48 margin. As I’ve discussed here before, if you assume that registered voters will turnout in a surprising robust fashion this election year, in effect perhaps throwing off what’s typically deemed a “likely voter,” than the category “Registered Voters” may be the more accurate margin count. As further proof, when registered voters were asked when "compared to previous elections, are you more enthusiastic about voting than usual," 65% were “More Enthusiastic” vs. just 23% who were “Less Enthusiastic.”

* For the question, “if the elections for Congress were being held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district,” 48% of reg. voters said “Democrat” vs. 44% “Republican.”

* When it came to “Stance on the issues” or “Leadership skills” as to which is more important, the latter won by a 47%/39% margin. I am just dumbfounded by this one. I realize the theme of this campaign has come down to so-called leadership abilities, but c’mon, you’ve got to be kidding me that Bush towers over Kerry when it comes to this quality. What has Bush done to make him such a great leader? In a very minimal sense, he did what he was getting paid to do (he simply did his job). What other president wouldn’t have bombed Afghanistan? However, is it a great leader that fails to assemble an international coalition to go to war vs. a country that never had anything to do with 9-11? So the logic of the results to this question is leadership trumps a candidate’s stance on education, health care, Iraq, tax policy, the economy, abortion, the environment, judicial nominees, etc. What?!

* What is the #1 issue to voters? What is it every election year? You guessed it: the economy. If you guessed terrorism, that would be second.

* On the question, “Cares about the needs of people like you,” Kerry wins by a 48/41 margin. Kerry should play this up, exploiting the fact that HE is the compassionate one – not Bush.

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