Monday, September 20, 2004

Someone slap me....

I've posted a few entries of late about election polls and how they're flawed and not a fair representation of what is likely to occur come November. Some may think I point such things out only because Kerry is behind in many polls. They'd be wrong since the inherent flaws in the polling methodology would obviously remain no matter who might be ahead.

However, to stay truthful (my main goal here), I've also written about market-driven election predictors, normally associated with online gambling casinos. I have been a big believer in such dollar-based "polls" as they've been very accurate when used in the past. It hurts me to report that based on two casino web sites, Bush's recent surge is even more dramatic than Gallup-like polls are showing. shows the following chart for Bush's chances of winning:

Ouch! Whereas GW's fate was in freefall for months prior to the GOP convention, he's currently enjoying a rip-snorting rally with the chart looking like a biotech stock that just discovered a cure for cancer! To further confirm this figure, World Sports Exchange shows the exact same, 70% Bush / 30% Kerry.

I'll state the obvious: what is wrong with this country?! That aside, I will mention a few things that can favor Kerry. One, he's now the underdog and many smart pundits have written how that's Kerry's preferred standing heading into a hard fought election. Two, the three upcoming debates could change everything. Three, unlike elections since the Vietnam era, the highly volatile Iraq situation and the threat of terrorism in general could greatly impact the election right up until November 2nd.

Finally, if this chart represented a stock, it's current price action could be classified as a "dead cat" bounce, meaning the stock was left for dead and with no more sellers it doesn't take much buying pressure to send the stock zooming. Granted, not an apples-to-apples comparison, but nonetheless what most often happens to these stocks after they enjoy a brief but powerful rally is they revert and resume their downward slide.

Please let GW = a bear market rally.

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